New Zealand Plant Protection 69 (2016): 186-199
Developing decision support models to evaluate biosecurity risks objectively helps decision makers manage the associated risks with importation of goods. We report on the development of a prototype generic risk assessment model to determine the probability and consequences of a plant pest establishment and spread event for an infection point, given the biosecurity risk organism arrives via various pathways. The model has a number of sub-models, including: entry pathway, which models the ratio of infested units coming from any pathway supplying the infection point; establishment and spread, which models the chance of an establishment and spread event occuring at an infection point; and consequences, which models the consequences of any establishment or spread event occurring at the site. Future research is planned to develop a generic input interface to generate a support tool to allow a user to investigate the impacts of alternative 'what-if ' scenarios and to test the model on real-world plant pest inputs.
Keywords: biosecurity, risk assessment, Bayesian network, plant import pathways.
|A review of methods for assessing and managing market access and biosecurity risks using systems approaches|
L.E. Jamieson, H.N. DeSilva, S.P. Worner, D.J. Rogers, M.G. Hill and J.T.S. Walker (2013)
New Zealand Plant Protection 66: 1-9
Copyright © 2016 New Zealand Plant Protection Society (Inc.).