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New Zealand Plant Protection 66 (2013): 184-193

Predicting the potential global distribution of Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa)

H.A. Narouei Khandan, S.P. Worner, E.E. Jones, S.L.H. Villjanen-Rollinson, L. Gallipoli, A. Mazzaglia and G.M. Balestra

ABSTRACT

The increasing spread of kiwifruit bacterial canker, caused by Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa), prompted a modelling effort to assess the global and local potential risk of this species. The current potential distribution of Psa was modelled with two well-used models (CLIMEX and MaxEnt) based on available presence records and environmental data. Most discrepancies in model projections occurred for New Zealand data that was used for validation. Model projections can provide information to alert decision-makers in kiwifruit-growing regions to prepare for possible incursions of Psa. However, in this study because model findings did not agree on the New Zealand validation data, more research is necessary to achieve greater confidence on projections for novel areas. Despite that result, this study provides useful information for some kiwifruit growing countries that have not yet been affected by Psa, such as USA, Iran, Greece, Belgium, Denmark and especially South Africa, where commercial kiwifruit orchards have been planted recently.

Keywords: kiwifruit bacterial disease, CLIMEX, MaxEnt, correlative model, mechanistic model.

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